Predictions
Real-Time Economic Signals Validated
Providing investors, policymakers, academics, and defense with decision-ready economic signals and data months before official releases.
Proof Meet Pudding
The above chart1 compares our prediction results to the actual GDP values released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Hover over the graph to see our values compared to the official government releases.
Comparing the absolute values of the deviations between the BEA and Atlas Analytics values yields an average error rate of approximately 0.6 percentage point. In large part, this discrepancy in accuracy comes from Net Exports.
Net Exports are a critical component of GDP, but they remain difficult to measure in real time. Official trade data often arrives after the underlying activity has already happened, leaving you with a delayed view of one of the economy’s most important moving pieces.
Our proprietary algorithm, ROY, gave Atlas a way to measure Core GDP by observing the domestic physical economy from space. JACK extends that approach to the maritime and trade economy working in tandem with ROY.
Prediction Accuracy
How Accurate are Atlas Analytics’ Methodology and Predictions?
Regarding the methodology, our team has conducted numerous tests to evaluate the association between the satellite imagery of the built environment and economic activity.
Utilizing regressions, we have found that the t-statistic on our satellite variables were nearly 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, suggesting it was very unlikely (less than 1 in 1000) that this was a false positive.
Even more promisingly, when we ran a variable importance test on the AI prediction algorithm, of the top 10 most important variables, our satellite imagery data constituted seven, even when including key traditional variables such as inflation and previous GDP.
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On September 26, 2024, the BEA released a 5-year revision to the official GDP values released between 2019 and 2024 and on January 1, 2025, Atlas Analytics updated our prediction results to reflect these updated GDP values.