The Road Ahead: What’s Next Now That the Government Has Reopened?

Atlas Analytics’ Weekly Subscriber Update

It’s almost Thanksgiving and remarkably, we still don’t have any official visibility into Q3 economic activity.

Not for July.
Not for August.
Not for September.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended on Wednesday, and yet it will still likely be weeks (if not months) before we have true visibility for Q3, let alone a preliminary look at Q4.

Yes, the government has reopened, but America’s economic dashboard is still dark.

Where We Really Stand Today

Here’s the short answer: we still don’t know what happened in Q3.

Not because the data doesn’t exist but because the agencies that publish it are still digging out from the shutdown.

1. We still don’t have trade numbers from the Census Bureau.

Trade accounts for a massive share of quarterly GDP variation and the last update from the Census Bureau was for July. Thus, August, September and October cargo volumes, container flows, port activity are all frozen behind the shutdown backlog. Without this, economists are flying blind on net exports.

2. We don’t have the jobs numbers from the BLS.

Employment is the pulse of the U.S. economy and right now, that pulse monitor is still unplugged. No nonfarm payrolls, no household data, no revisions.

3. We don’t know when we’ll get the first GDP release from the BEA.

Normally, by this point in November, we’d have the Advance Estimate for Q3 2024 (it was originally scheduled to be released on October 30).

Instead, we have…

4. A short update from the BEA.

The translation: they’re working through the backlog, but there’s no clear timeline for catching up, not to mention providing full revisions.

Why This Matters

When official data shuts down, the markets don’t stop. Investors still trade. Companies still hire. States still make budget decisions. Households still spend. The economy keeps moving, even when the measurement system doesn’t.

This is exactly the problem Atlas was built to solve.

How Atlas Sees Q3

On October 26 Atlas released our Q3 2025 GDP forecast. As a reminder, here’s how we saw the U.S. economy at that point:

While the government remains in catch-up mode, Atlas’ real-time indicators have already processed the entire summer and early fall and we believe headline GDP remains strong at approximately ~2.4%.

Since then, we have been updating Q3 and even Q4 for all components (Core GDP, Net Exports and Private Inventories) every single week for our clients.

From our data, Q3 wasn’t a mystery. It was visible weeks ago.

One Step Forward, One Step Back

The government is back online, but the data lags won’t resolve overnight. The shutdown created a time gap that can’t be compressed, and that means:

• Markets will continue to be trading blind for weeks to come.

• Businesses will be operating without official benchmark data.

• Most GDP estimates will rely on inference, not measurement, especially since we suspect the BEA will have limited ability to produce all three estimates for Q3 and possibly for Q4.

Atlas will continue to bridge that gap.

A Closing Thought

It’s strange to be entering the holiday season without knowing what happened in the economy months ago. But this moment makes one thing clear:

Economic intelligence shouldn’t grind to a halt when the government does.

We’ll keep providing clarity as the official numbers slowly return.

Technical Appendix (Premium Subscribers Only)

How Atlas Measured Q3 While Washington Was Dark

This appendix outlines the methodology behind Atlas Analytics’ real-time estimates during the 2025 government shutdown, including data inputs, model behavior, and uncertainty considerations.