As the third quarter closes, investors are again asking the same question: how strong is the U.S. economy, really?
The Federal Reserve’s two regional nowcasting models tell starkly different stories. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool is tracking nearly +4.0%, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast stands at a much cooler +2.3%.
That’s a 1.7-point gap between two of the Fed’s own models, and with the ongoing government shutdown halting official data releases, there’s no clear referee.
At Atlas Analytics, we take a different approach: one that doesn’t depend on Washington staying open.
In fact, our models proved their accuracy last quarter: we forecasted +4.3% GDP for Q2, just 0.5 percentage points from the BEA’s final number.
Now, for Q3, our satellite-based models point to a slowdown, but not a stall.
We forecast +2.4% headline GDP growth, right in line with the New York Fed’s estimate.
Here’s how we got there:
Core GDP:
Atlas’ real-time satellite models track industrial output, energy demand, and consumer activity. As of the latest reading, Core GDP sits at +3.22%, reflecting continued domestic resilience beneath the surface.
Net Exports:
Port-level satellite imagery and shipping data show ongoing trade imbalances, with exports still lagging imports. We estimate Net Exports at –0.33%, a modest drag on growth.
Private Inventories:
Firms continue to draw down stockpiles instead of rebuilding them, subtracting another –0.52% from GDP growth.
Add it up, and you get a slowing but still expanding economy, one that’s humming quietly below the radar while Washington remains offline.
When Washington Goes Dark, the Data Must Not
While traditional models diverge and official data releases remain frozen, alternative data has become essential.
At Atlas, we call it “data exhaust.”
Data exhaust is the digital smoke trail left behind by the real economy including satellite imagery, port traffic, energy consumption, and mobility patterns that reveal what’s happening long before the government prints the numbers.
When Washington shuts down, markets don’t wait.
Factories still hum. Ports still move. Consumers still spend.
Atlas captures those signals directly from space, ensuring that the flow of insight never stops, even when the lights are out in Washington.
Watch our new Q3 GDP Forecast Video for the full analysis and what it means heading into Q4.
Looking Ahead
Early signals from our Q4 model suggest a potential rebound in industrial activity as supply chains normalize and exports stabilize.
We’ll release our first Q4 nowcast next month and stay tuned for updates on both our Substack and YouTube channel.
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All my best,
Jake