Why Macroeconomics Matters?
Atlas Analytics' Weekly Subscriber Update
With an important GDP release expected this upcoming Wednesday (July 30) showing how the economy performed during Q2 2025, Atlas Analytics believes the time is ripe to ask a simple, but subtle, question:
Why does macroeconomics matter?
The short answer: Macroeconomics isn’t just for policymakers or investors. It affects all of us.
In this update, we break down why macro matters, what to watch, and how Atlas Analytics sees the economy unfolding.
What Is Macroeconomics, Really?
There’s an old adage in the dismal science that “a rising tide raises all ships.” That’s macroeconomics in a nutshell: the tide.
While microeconomics focuses on individual decisions (for example, why one shopper chooses Coke over Pepsi, or how a company sets prices), macroeconomics zooms out to examine the forces that move the entire economy. It’s the study of GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade balances, and interest rates: the very currents that shape national and global outcomes.
Think of macroeconomics as the economy’s weather system. It doesn’t tell you whether your local café will be busy tomorrow, but it does forecast the storm clouds or sunshine that will affect thousands of cafés across in a particular region. And just like weather, macro matters because it affects everyone, even if we’re not directly influencing it or even paying attention to it.
As we’ve written about previously, GDP is the bottom of bottom-up analysis. It’s the tectonic force that shifts the currents (and the ships buoying to its currents), rocking equity markets and individual consumers alike. Whether investors realize it or not, macroeconomic conditions influence all security selection.
At Atlas Analytics, we believe macroeconomics should be accessible, timely, and actionable. Just like with weather forecasting (which was also once thought to be impossible), we believe the macroeconomy can be predicted, at least for the present and the near-future, with reasonable accuracy.
Can we forecast economic activity years in advance? No.
Can we use satellite imagery, literal pictures of Earth, to assess real-time economic conditions? We believe the answer is a definitive yes.
This week’s GDP release will be a major test of that thesis, a real-world validation of whether geospatial macroeconomic forecasting is not just theoretically sound but also practically viable.
We believe the answer, once again, will be a resounding yes.
Why It Affects You (Yes, You)
It’s easy to think of macroeconomics as something abstract: debated by economists, quoted in news headlines, and occasionally weaponized in political speeches. But behind every percentage point of GDP growth or inflation lies a set of very real, very human consequences.
Your paycheck, your rent, your interest rate, your job prospects: these are all shaped by macroeconomic forces.
When inflation rises, your purchasing power falls. When GDP contracts, companies pull back on hiring or cut jobs altogether. When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates (guided by macro data, which we also utilized to forecast the Federal Funds Rate), it impacts everything from mortgage payments to credit card APRs. Even if you’ve never read a single FOMC transcript, your financial life is reacting to what’s in them.
And it's not just personal finance. Markets are downstream of the macro. Stock prices, bond yields, and currency values (which we also predict) all fluctuate based on shifts in growth, inflation expectations, and geopolitical macro shocks. If you're investing, or even saving for retirement, you're implicitly betting on how the economy behaves.
In short: macroeconomics is the invisible hand behind the visible headlines and, increasingly, behind your day-to-day decisions.
At Atlas Analytics, we aim to make the invisible visible. Not just for hedge funds or economists, but for professionals, policy thinkers, and engaged citizens. If you're trying to navigate an uncertain world, understanding macro is no longer optional. It’s essential.
Atlas Analytics' Unique Approach
As opposed to other economic forecasters that use lagged data and antiquated modeling techniques, Atlas Analytics utilizes actual images of Earth from the Landsat Satellite Program, in combination with advanced neural network algorithms, to predict the economy in real time.
By analyzing changes in industrial activity, port throughput, transportation flows, energy usage, and agricultural patterns directly from space, we bypass the delays and distortions baked into traditional government statistics. Our models aren’t relying on surveys or secondhand reports. They’re observing economic activity after it has happened; we’re observing it as it happens.
This allows us to produce forecasts that are not only more timely and geographically granular, but also resilient to later data revisions, delivering more accurate and actionable insights.
For Q2 2025, Atlas is forecasting U.S. real GDP growth at +4.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), well above the Wall Street consensus of around 2.8%. Our models are detecting a broad-based surge in activity led by robust Core GDP, and a somewhat unexpected surge in the U.S. trade balance. All of these are signals visible from orbit before they appear on government spreadsheets.
Whether that number proves spot on or directionally correct, this week’s GDP release will serve as a critical test of our core thesis: that the macroeconomy is observable, interpretable, and predictable in real time using space-based data.
What to Watch This Week
All eyes turn to Wednesday, July 30 at 8:30 AM ET, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases its advance estimate of Q2 2025 U.S. GDP. This single data point will ripple across markets, influence policymaker decisions, and potentially reshape the economic narrative for the second half of the year.
Forecasts for Q2 growth are widely dispersed, reflecting deep uncertainty about the true state of the economy. As shown above, Atlas Analytics is calling for +4.3% growth, while others remain far more cautious or wildly optimistic.
Atlas Analytics’ forecast is well above both the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate (2.6%) and the New York Fed’s Nowcast (1.6%) but is far more restrained than Daniel Bachman’s outlier projection of 9.8%. This divergence isn’t just academic; it will shape market reactions and media narratives come Wednesday morning.
Final Thoughts: Why Macro Will Always Matter
Macroeconomics matters because it connects the personal to the planetary. It links paychecks to interest rates, grocery bills to global trade, and investments to decisions made half a world away. In a world of headlines, noise, and fleeting trends, macro is the signal underneath it all.
It’s easy to forget that the economy isn’t just numbers. It’s a living system of people, production, and possibility. When we measure GDP, we’re really measuring momentum: how fast the world is changing, where it’s headed, and who’s being lifted or left behind.
At Atlas Analytics, we believe macro isn’t just for academics or institutions. It should be understood, debated, and democratized. Our mission is to make the invisible levers of the economy visible using cutting-edge tools that capture what’s really happening on the ground (and from space).
This week’s GDP release is a moment of truth not just for Atlas Analytics but for how macroeconomics is practiced in the 21st century. And no matter where the number lands, one thing is certain:
Macroeconomics will always matter. Because beneath every market move, policy shift, or paycheck, the tide is always rising or falling.
Thanks for following along and we'll be back with a full breakdown after the release.
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