Satellite Signals Suggest U.S. Economic Growth Is Gradually Slowing

Core GDP is on a long-term slowing cycle — and Atlas Analytics is seeing it first from space

For the past several years, Atlas Analytics has been developing a simple idea:

If you can observe the real economy directly from space you can measure economic activity before the official statistics are released.

Our satellite-based models track patterns in construction activity, infrastructure usage, logistics networks, and other physical indicators of economic production. From these signals we estimate Core GDP, a measure of the domestic economy consisting of Consumption, Government Expenditures, and Fixed Investment.

The key insight is not only the numerical prediction of those indicators but the turning points. Our algorithms signal shifts in the trajectory of the real economy roughly one quarter before they appear in the official data.

This week we’re releasing an updated comparison between Atlas’ satellite-based estimate of Core GDP and the realized data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The results show that signals captured from space track the underlying trajectory of the economy remarkably well—and may provide an early indication that growth is gradually slowing beneath the surface of the headline numbers.

Satellite Signals vs. Official Data

Since 2023, our satellite-based estimate of Core GDP has shown a strong relationship with the official data released by the BEA.

Across this period, the Atlas model demonstrates:

• Pearson correlation: 0.70

• Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): ~0.77 percentage points (relative to the BEA’s third revision)

In other words, signals extracted from satellite imagery track the direction and magnitude of economic activity with surprising accuracy.

Even more importantly, the satellite signal typically leads the official data by roughly three months.

That lead time matters.

Government statistics arrive with delays and are often revised multiple times. By the time markets fully digest them, the underlying economy may already be moving in a different direction.

The goal of Atlas Analytics is to observe those movements as they happen.

The latest BEA print was temporarily reduced by the government shutdown at the end of 2025. Adjusting for that effect brings the underlying growth rate closer to ~2%, broadly consistent with the Atlas signal. Over the full sample since 2023, the satellite-based estimates maintain a correlation of 0.70 with official data and an RMSE of ~0.77 percentage points, indicating that the model continues to track the underlying direction of economic activity well.

The investment implication?

Markets react to changes in economic momentum rather than the level of GDP itself. Our satellite signals suggest that shifts in that momentum can be detected roughly one quarter before they appear in the official statistics.

The Trend Is Gradually Slowing

One feature of the data stands out clearly:

Core GDP appears to be trending gradually lower over the past several years.

The economy has not collapsed. Far from it.

But the underlying rate of growth has steadily moderated from the stronger pace seen earlier in the cycle.

Several forces may be contributing to this shift:

• The fading effects of post-pandemic fiscal stimulus
• Higher real rates weighing on investment
• Moderating consumer demand after several years of unusually strong spending

Individually, none of these forces necessarily signals an imminent downturn.

But together they suggest that the underlying pace of economic expansion may be cooling.

If the trend continues, it could eventually lead to a broader slowdown or recessionary environment. For now, the data suggests moderation rather than contraction.

Why Core GDP Matters

Headline GDP can often be misleading.

Two components—Net Exports and Private Inventories—can swing dramatically from quarter to quarter due to factors unrelated to the underlying health of the domestic economy.

To isolate the true momentum of economic activity, Atlas focuses on Core GDP, which captures the more stable components of economic growth: consumption, government spending, and long-term investment.

This measure tends to provide a clearer signal of underlying economic momentum.

However, accurately measuring Net Exports and Private Inventories remains one of the most difficult challenges in macroeconomic forecasting. Both components can create large surprises in GDP releases and often drive the gap between expectations and realized outcomes.

To address this challenge, Atlas is currently developing a new generation of algorithms designed to measure these components directly using satellite and geospatial data.

Early results are promising, and we believe these tools will meaningfully expand our ability to measure the full economy in near real time.

The Trading Advantage of Early Signals

The most powerful aspect of satellite-based macro measurement is timing.

Because Atlas’ Core GDP estimate tends to lead official data by roughly three months, it provides a window into economic momentum before it becomes visible in traditional statistics.

During volatile market periods, such as the turbulent weeks we have seen recently, having a clearer picture of underlying economic activity can be extremely valuable.

It allows investors to position ahead of the consensus narrative.

Using Atlas signals to guide our positioning, our trading strategy is currently up roughly ~6% year-to-date, while several major equity indices have struggled over the same period.

(We plan to share a more detailed performance breakdown in a future post.)

The goal is not simply forecasting.

It is turning economic insight into actionable investment decisions.

What Comes Next

Satellite-based measurement of economic activity is still in its early stages.

Over the past few months, Atlas has begun collaborating with several longstanding institutions in the macroeconomic and policy community to explore how satellite-derived economic indicators can complement traditional statistics.

At the same time, we are expanding our modeling framework to incorporate additional components of economic activity that have historically been difficult to measure in real time.

Together, these developments represent the next phase of Atlas’ work.

We look forward to sharing more about these efforts, and what they reveal about the economy, in the months ahead.

Stay tuned.

The Bottom Line

The satellites are telling a clear story.

The U.S. economy remains resilient but underlying growth appears to be gradually slowing.

And thanks to new sources of data, we can see these shifts months before they appear in official statistics.

That is the power of observing the economy from space.