Q2 2025 GDP Forecast
Atlas Analytics' Weekly Subscriber Update
Since early May, Atlas Analytics has been calling for a big Q2 print.
Well, here it is.
For Q2 2025 U.S. GDP, we are drawing our line in the sand:
+4.3% annualized growth.
GDP Components Breakdown
Core GDP, the heartbeat of the U.S. economy, accelerated to 3.46%, was driven by strong consumer demand and robust services spending.
Net Exports, which were a drag in Q1, flipped to being robustly positive at +3.67% as exports recovered and the Trump Tariff impacts stabilized.
However, Private Inventories fell sharply due to a glut of supplies from the Trump Tariff frontrunning, contributing -2.81% to growth.
Let’s do the math:
3.46 + 3.67 - 2.81 = 4.32%
… and that’s Atlas Analytics’ Q2 GDP forecast.
How Does This Compare?
Atlas Analytics is definitely on the high end of the spectrum, but we’re not alone.
Dan Bachman over at The Nowcast is forecasting an even hotter quarter with a stunning 9.8% growth rate.
Meanwhile, more traditional estimates like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model are hovering around 2.4%, and the consensus on Wall Street remains between 2.5% and 3.5%.
We think the street is underestimating the strength of real-time activity. Whether it’s trade flows, consumer resilience, or overlooked second-order effects of inventory liquidation, our data says this quarter is going to surprise.
Mark Your Calendars
The BEA will release the Advance Q2 GDP estimate on July 30 at 8:30 AM ET. We’ll be covering it in real time and breaking down the print shortly after.
Until then, we stand by our call.
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All my best,
Jake