Official Release: Q4 2025 GDP Forecast

Production expanded, trade added lift, and domestic demand stayed resilient

As 2025 came to a close, the dominant narrative was clear: the U.S. economy was running out of steam.

Slower consumption, tighter financial conditions, and trade imbalances led many economists to expect a soft finish to the year. Consensus forecasts drifted lower through the fall.

But our models were telling a different story.

While traditional forecasters leaned cautious, Atlas Analytics’ satellite-derived indicators across consumption, trade, and fixed investment remained firm. And now, the official data are beginning to reflect that strength.

Our final forecast for Q4 2025 U.S. GDP comes in at +5.2%, a strong acceleration into year-end.

Here’s how we got there:

The Indicators:

Core GDP
Real-time satellite measurements of industrial activity, energy demand, and consumer intensity pointed to sustained domestic resilience. Core growth contributed +2.6 percentage points, reflecting firm production and steady household demand.

Net Exports
Port-level imagery and shipping volume data showed improving trade flows late in the quarter. As export activity strengthened and the deficit narrowed, Net Exports added +2.1 percentage points to headline growth.

Private Inventories
After weighing on GDP earlier in the year, inventories flipped into a tailwind. Firms rebuilt stock amid solid demand, contributing +0.8 percentage points.

Add it up, and Q4 was not narrow or technical. It was a broad-based expansion across production, trade, and domestic demand.

Where Growth Is Happening

The strength was not confined to the national aggregates.

Our Q4 state-level forecasts show expansion dispersed across much of the country. The Southeast led with above-trend momentum across the Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee, and the broader Gulf corridor, supported by manufacturing activity and logistics flows.

The Mountain West, including Arizona, Utah, and Colorado, continued to benefit from in-migration, construction, and business formation trends.

National GDP is a headline number and will reflect the sum of the state’s growth— but the signal appears first at the state level. When policymakers and investors focus only on the top-line number, they miss the geographic drivers and often respond after the window to act has closed

Atlas’ state-level GDP forecasts give those decision-makers something they’ve never had before: An independent, real-time read on the underlying economic drivers at the state level, before the official data confirms them.

On Q1 2026

Early Q1 2026 nowcasts suggest moderation off a strong Q4 base. Consumption remains positive but is cooling. Trade contributions are stabilizing. Inventory accumulation is slowing after companies rebuilt stock levels at year-end.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady in January, and for now we expect policy to remain in a holding pattern. Broader macro-financial risks, including interest rates, fiscal pressures, and global capital flows, remain important swing factors. Looking further into late 2026, credible paths exist in both directions. Growth could firm if demand re-accelerates, or soften further if cooling deepens. Macro-financial risks (rates, fiscal pressures, global capital flows) remain important swing factors, but state-level activity data will provide the earliest signal of which path is emerging.

At Atlas, we remain fully data dependent. As new satellite, trade, and consumption signals come online, they will shape our views in real time and provide early signals of which path is emerging.

Don’t miss our Q4 2025 GDP Forecast video for a deeper dive and stay tuned for our 2026 Q1 Forecast.