Official Release: Q1 2026 GDP Forecast
The U.S. economy may be stabilizing, but the composition is shifting. Here’s what our satellite data shows for Q1
The U.S. economy isn’t breaking. But it is changing.
Beneath the surface, the composition of growth is shifting. And from space, that shift is visible in real time.
Last quarter, Atlas saw a wider-than-usual gap between our estimate and the BEA release. We’ve reviewed it closely with clients and are sharing the same perspective here.
These moments matter. They show where the model is working, and where it needs to adapt.
What Happened
Our core system, ROY, held up directionally.
Atlas estimated Core GDP at +2.35 percentage points versus +0.57 from the BEA.
A meaningful portion of that gap, roughly one percentage point, came from a government spending drag tied to the federal shutdown. This introduced a temporary distortion that the current model does not fully capture.
But the real story was Net Exports.
The BEA reported roughly -0.2 percentage points. Atlas estimated +2.1.
That’s a gap of more than two percentage points, and it’s where we’ve focused our work.
What We’re Fixing
Two changes are now underway.
First, we’re upgrading ROY to better handle macro shocks, things like shutdowns or abrupt fiscal changes that can distort the signal.
Second, we’re introducing something new: JACK.
JACK (the Joint Algorithm for Containerized Knowledge) uses computer vision on satellite imagery to track container movement across major U.S. ports. Nearly 80% of U.S. trade flows through those ports.
For the first time, we’re not inferring trade. We’re measuring it directly, from space.
JACK will scale further in Q2, running alongside our existing Net Exports framework.
The Q1 Forecast
Recent quarters have been volatile.
Q3 came in at +4.4%.
Q4 slowed to around +0.5%.
For Q1, Atlas sees a more balanced picture:
Within our framework:
Core GDP + Net Exports + Inventories = Headline GDP.
What the data shows is stabilization, but with a shift underneath.
Domestic activity is holding up.
Net Exports remain a drag, the component we’re now measuring more directly.
What Comes Next
With new investors onboard, we’re accelerating across three fronts:
Technology — A beta client portal is in development, providing real-time access to Atlas data.
Product — JACK is expanding. More ports. Better coverage. Higher-frequency trade signals.
Platform & Team — We’re scaling both the system and the team behind it.
From day one, the goal has been simple:
We’re not forecasting the economy.
We’re measuring it.
Directly, From space.
And we’ll keep refining that measurement, quarter by quarter.
Atlas Analytics is a satellite-based macroeconomic forecasting company. ROY (Remote Orbital Yield) is Atlas’s proprietary GDP measurement signal. JACK (Joint Algorithm for Containerized Knowledge) is currently in active development.